资本市场股价崩盘风险的形成机制和影响因素：从宏观市场到微观治理

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摘要

股价崩盘风险表现为证券价格没有预料到的大幅下跌，给投资者资产安全和资本市场的平稳运行带来极大威胁，为系统钻研该极端风险的诱发逻辑，本文首先从宏观市场与微观公司双重视角梳理股价崩盘形成机制：在市场这个维度上，涵盖了有效市场假说当中的财务杠杆和波动率反馈效应，以及行为金融学所涉及视角下的非理性噪声交易和异质信念冲击；从公司的维度来讲，重点分析基于代理冲突和信息不对称理论的“信息捂盘假说”的情况。以这个为基础，本文进一步从企业内、外部环境两方面对股价崩盘风险的影响因素做了归纳，内部因素主要受管理层的行为（像股权激励、税收规避、过度投资还有高管特质等）、信息披露质量和大股东特征所驱动；外部因素主要关联机构投资者的监督和羊群行为表现、外部审计质量好坏、媒体监督以及董监高责任保险的治理干预影响，本文开展的理论梳理，给理解资本市场剧烈震荡机制提供了完整的认知维度，也为防范系统性金融风险、加大企业信息透明度及优化治理效能提供了重要的理论支撑。

文献引用

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